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☆ China's policy to boost demand by $700 billion will have a 'bigger and bigger' impact, official says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-12 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Vcg | Visual China Group | Getty ImagesBEIJING — China's latest policy to boost demand will soon have a greater effect on growth, a top official at the economic planning agency told reporters Thursday. "We believe this work will achieve bigger and bigger results," he said in Mandarin, translated by CNBC. He noted that equipment upgrades account for 9% to 10% of total GDP. 'Strong' central government fiscal supportIn terms of fiscal funding for those upgrades, Zhao said the central government would provide "strong support." Part of the equipment upgrade and consumer trade-in policy also focuses on improving standards for the kinds of products that can be used.

Persons: That's, Zhao Chenxin, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Zhao, Bruce Pang, Fu Jinling, Fu, Francoise Huang, We're, JLL's Pang, Shan Zhongde Organizations: Visual China, Getty, BEIJING, National Development, Reform Commission, CNBC, Analysts, People's Bank of, Allianz Trade, Ministry of Industry, Information Technology, Ministry of Housing, Ministry of Commerce, State Administration, Market, China's Ministry of Commerce, Industry, Global Locations: Qingzhou, Weifang City, Shandong Province, China, oversupply, Beijing, JLL, People's Bank of China

☆ A crucial report Wednesday is expected to show little progress against inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-09 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Scott Olson | Getty ImagesA closely watched Labor Department report due Wednesday is expected to show that not much progress is being made in the battle to bring down inflation. To be sure, inflation has come down dramatically from its peak above 9% in June 2022. That showed headline inflation running at 2.5% and the core rate at 2.8% in February. For their part, markets have grown nervous about the state of inflation and how it will affect rate policy. "I don't see a whole lot here that is going to move things magically the way they want to go," North said.

Persons: Scott Olson, We're, Dan North, North, they've Organizations: Getty, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Allianz Trade North America, Fed, Commerce, PCE Locations: Chicago , Illinois

☆ Job gains expected again in March. Here are all the things to look for in Friday's report
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-04 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Job growth is expected to come in at 200,000 for the period, according to the Dow Jones consensus forecast. That will be just one of several key areas in focus when the report is released at 8:30 a.m. The job market's resilience has confounded many economists who spent the past two years searching for a jobs-led recession that never happened. Household employment, which counts individual workers rather than total jobs and is used to calculate the unemployment rate, has fallen by nearly 1 million since November. The survey is more volatile and uses a much smaller sample than the establishment count that yields the headline payrolls growth total.

Persons: Timothy Aeppel, nonfarm payrolls, Dow, Dan North, Goldman Sachs, Luke Tilley, Stocks Organizations: Labor Department, Allianz Trade, Wilmington Trust Locations: Oxnard , California, Wilmington

☆ Here’s why high interest rates haven’t caused a US recession
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-19 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

America’s economy remains remarkably solid, despite the high interest rates. The Fed dramatically cut interest rates in the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic to help shore up an economy dealing with high unemployment, prompting mortgage rates to also drop in tandem. Those homeowners who locked in an affordable 3% mortgage rate, for instance, aren’t likely to trade it for anything higher. Fed officials reflected in their latest economic projections from December that they expect to cut interest rates three times this year, which would also lower mortgage rates. That all means that Americans have been well equipped to deal with the effects of high interest rates.

Persons: Jerome Powell, ” Powell, ” Dan North, Freddie Mac, ” Karen Manna, Federated Hermes, “, ”, Powell Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Reserve, CBS, Allianz Trade, CNN, Fed, Employers, Consumer Finances, Federated Locations: Washington

☆ What a Trump 2.0 Economy Would Look Like
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-15 | by ( Tim Smart | ) www.usnews.com time to read: +10 min

Overall, the Biden economic plan draws less than favorable reviews from voters. So, too, are promises of more tax cuts and a sharp curtailment of immigration. Trump was upset in 2019 that Powell was not doing enough to lower interest rates and stimulate the economy. The Trump tax cuts are set to expire in 2025, giving a second Trump administration the opportunity to fight that battle again. “A Trump 2.0 presidency would inherit very large fiscal deficits from the Biden Administration, rising interest expenses and an economy probably more prone to bouts of inflation,” the report said.

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☆ U.S. job growth totaled 275,000 in February but unemployment rate rose to 3.9%
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-08 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

watch nowJob creation topped expectations in February, but the unemployment rate moved higher and employment growth from the previous two months wasn't nearly as hot as initially reported. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 275,000 for the month while the jobless rate moved higher to 3.9%, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. The jobless level increased as the household survey, used to calculate the unemployment rate, showed a decline of 184,000 in those employed. The increase came even though the labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5%, though the "prime age" rate increased to 83.5%, up two-tenths of a percentage point. An alternative jobless measure, sometimes called the "real" unemployment rate, that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons rose slightly to 7.3%.

Persons: Nonfarm, Dow Jones, Stocks, It's, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, Dan North, Jerome Powell Organizations: Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Treasury, Government, Futures, Allianz Trade, Capitol

Still, that is considerably below where inflation was in 2022 and much of last year. Along with the health of the labor market, the Fed considers inflation among the key economic data points to watch as it looks to start cutting interest rates this year. “If inflation comes in below expectation, the markets will cheer the welcome news that the economy and the job market can remain solid without increasing inflation. On Friday, more inflation data will be released with the January producer price index – a measure of what businesses pay for the products and services they sell. The PPI is often a predictor of future inflation as it shows prices that are early in the pipeline and often passed on to consumers.

Persons: ”, Skyler Weinand, Regan, Venkat Balakrishnan, Jerome Powell, “, Dan North, “ Powell, Melissa Brown, Signifyd, ” Signifyd Organizations: Labor, Federal Reserve, Dow, Industrial, Regan Capital, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Allianz Trade, ”, PPI Locations: North America

☆ China comes just shy of Japan as the world's largest car exporter
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-31 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

"In the first eleven months of 2023, auto shipments to Russia rose about six times that of 2022 in value terms." While he said it's still unclear exactly why Chinese cars are growing so quickly in Mexico, part of the reason is international automakers. Germany's Volkswagen was among the foreign car companies on track for their worst China market sales in years. Local vs. overseas marketsChinese car makers will likely increase their share of the domestic auto market to 75% by 2030, said Francoise Huang, senior economist at Allianz Trade. That would result in a nearly 40% drop in European car sales in China, she said.

Persons: Sarah Tan, Tan, Jorge Guajardo, Guajardo, it's, they've, BYD, Francoise Huang Organizations: Publishing, Getty, Ministry of Commerce, Moody's, D.C, Dentons Global Advisors, CNBC, Volkswagen, China, Allianz Trade, European Union Locations: LIANYUNGANG, CHINA, Lianyungang, Jiangsu province, China, BEIJING, Japan, Russia, Ukraine, Mexico, Belgium, Washington, U.S, Europe

☆ Even with progress on inflation and solid growth, the Fed will want to see more before cutting rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Solid economic economic growth combined with decelerating inflation feels like the perfect combination for the Federal Reserve to dial down its restrictive monetary policy. More broadly, though, the resilient nature of the economy brought the Fed closer to its goal of arresting inflation without crushing growth. On the balance between the threat of overheating growth and the positive developments on inflation, Bovino thinks the Fed will be more inclined to cast a wary eye on the growth side. "They have their work cut out for them." "They want to make absolutely sure inflation is killed, and they're not going to cut rates until that is the case."

Persons: Beth Ann Bovino, there's, Bovino, they'll, Bill Adams, Jerome, Powell, Gus Faucher, haven't, Dan North, they're Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S . Bank, Commerce Department's, Economic, CME Group, Comerica Bank, Fed, PNC Financial Services, North America, Allianz Trade

☆ Inflation is still a mixed bag, but markets don't care. They see big Fed rate cuts ahead
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-15 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

December's inflation data provided just enough evidence to show that the pace of price increases is continuing to cool while also serving up a reminder that the war isn't won yet. One is that regardless of the headline numbers, the parts of inflation that don't fluctuate as much have been fairly stubborn. So-called sticky inflation, which includes things such as housing costs, auto insurance, medical care services and household furnishings, are indeed holding higher. On a one-month annualized basis, the measure also was at 4.6%, but that's up a full percentage point from the previous month. Fed policymakers also are attuned to the relationship between wages and inflation.

Persons: isn't, Disinflation, Jamie Dimon, cautioning, Krishna Guha, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Ian Shepherdson, Dan North Organizations: Separate Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Nomura Global Economics, JPMorgan Chase, Evercore ISI, PPI, Citigroup, Commerce, Fed, Pantheon, Atlanta, Allianz Trade Locations: Red

The monthly decline in the producer price index was the largest since April 2020, when the country was facing the shock of the COVID-19 pandemic. Excluding energy and food costs, the core index is now at 2.9% annualized, slightly above where it stood in September. Analysts had predicted a monthly drop of 0.1% and an annual rate of 1.9% for the overall index. It was the second reading in as many days that showed inflation receding closer to the Federal Reserve’s 2% annual target. The core index, leaving out energy and food costs, came in at 4%.

Persons: ” Kathy Jones, John Sedunov, ”, Jerome Powell, “, Wells, Dan North Organizations: of Labor Statistics, “, Analysts, Schwab Center, Financial Research, Dow Jones, Research, Villanova University, International Monetary Fund, Treasury, Census, North America, Allianz Trade, Consumers Locations: Washington, U.S

☆ US stocks rise as bond yields pull back from 16-year highs
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks moved higher on Wednesday, while bond yields declined Tuesday's highs. ADP reported private payrolls climbed 89,000 in September, below forecasts of 160,000. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAdvertisementUS stocks moved higher on Wednesday, as the 10-year US Treasury yield retreated slightly after hitting 16-year highs.

Persons: payrolls, —, Dow Jones, Dan North, Quincy Krosby Organizations: Treasury, Service, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Fed, Allianz Trade North, JPMorgan, Dow Jones Locations: Allianz Trade North America

"There's no real consensus at the moment about the increase in interest rates among economic actors," Jeremie Delecourt, chief operating officer at French private equity fund Ardian, told Reuters. In the euro zone, the peak is near after a combined 4 percentage points rise in the past year, ECB policymaker and French central bank governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on a panel at the conference. But he also said that rates would be left high for as long as necessary to ensure that inflation is headed back to the European Central Bank's 2% target by 2025. The ECB raised interest rates to their highest level in 22 years last month and promised another hike this month, with possibly another in September. "I see quite a bit of optimism in the short term, but I see a lot of downside risks if there is a policy mistake, especially from the central banks," she added.

Persons: Jeremie Delecourt, Francois Villeroy de Galhau, Jean, Louis Girodolle, Lazard, Mario Draghi's, Somersan Coqui, Daniel Barneix, Barneix, Veronika Grimm, Leigh Thomas, Alexander Smith Organizations: Reuters, ECB policymaker, Central, ECB, Atlantic, Allianz Trade, Thomson Locations: PROVENCE, France, United States, Europe, Aix, Provence

☆ China poses greatest risk to Europe's carmakers - Allianz Trade study
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Nick Carey | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Companies Allianz SE FollowTesla Inc FollowLONDON, May 9 (Reuters) - Chinese-made electric vehicles (EVs) pose the greatest risk to Europe's carmakers and could cost them 7 billion euros ($7.7 billion) a year in lost profits by 2030 unless policymakers take action, according to an Allianz Trade report. Europe's carmakers face a dual threat from the prospect of falling sales of their own vehicles in China, where local EV makers have been growing market share, and from rising sales of imported Chinese EVs - made by Chinese or Western carmakers. A crowded market for all-electric SUVs in China is putting pressure on local carmakers to export more vehicles to Europe. "The stakes are high for Europe's automotive industry: four out of five cars sold in Europe are assembled locally," the report added. The report said the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) had made Europe a target for Chinese exports.

☆ Ukraine war expected to cost Germany 160 billion euros by year-end
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

BERLIN, Feb 19 (Reuters) - The Ukraine war will have cost the German economy around 160 billion euros ($171 billion), or some 4% of its gross domestic output, in lost value creation by the end of the year, the head of the German Chambers of Industry and Commerce (DIHK) said. That means GDP per capita in Europe's largest economy will be 2,000 euros lower it would otherwise have been, DIHK chief Peter Adrian told the "Rheinische Post". Germany, which for decades relied on relatively cheap Russian pipeline gas, now has especially high energy prices compared with the United States that has its own natural gas reserves, while France has abundant nuclear power. "The gas price is around three-five times higher than in the United States," he said, adding electricity was four times as expensive as in France. ($1 = 0.9351 euros)Reporting by Klaus Lauer; Writing by Sarah Marsh; editing by Barbara LewisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ The Fed Keeps Hiking Interest Rates. Here’s Why You Should ‘Absolutely’ Act Now for Better Savings and CD Rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( ) www.wsj.com time to read: +6 min

By Martha C. WhiteThe Fed is set to send savings and CD rates higher yet again. On Wednesday, the Fed announced a quarter-percentage-point interest rate increase to its benchmark federal-funds rate, following its Jan. 31-Feb.1 meeting. Policy makers’ economic projections released in December show that Fed officials don’t expect inflation to hit 2.1% until 2025. “It’s going to be slow, but I think the trend is going to be higher” rates. If that’s your bank, he adds, you “absolutely should be taking advantage of a higher rate savings account.”

☆ Cyber Monday sets sales record as shoppers splurge on toys, electronics- report
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Toys were the hottest products on Cyber Monday, their online sales jumped nearly eight-fold compared to an average day in October 2022, according to the Adobe Analytics report. Electronics sales rose about five-fold, while sporting goods, appliances and books also saw increases over 400%. About 196.7 million shoppers made purchases during the five-day holiday period from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday, the National Retail Federation said on Tuesday. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsCanada's Shopify Inc (SHOP.TO) said its merchants recorded $7.5 billion in sales globally from Black Friday through Cyber Monday. Still, some experts were not convinced that a bright Cyber Monday was a sign of inflation easing its burden on consumer sentiment.

☆ One of China's inflation gauges drops for the first time since 2020
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

China's producer price index fell year-on-year in October 2022 for the first time since December 2020. BEIJING — China's producer price index fell in October for the first time since December 2020, dragged down by drops in iron and steel prices, according to official data released Wednesday. The producer price index, which tracks the price of raw materials and other input costs, fell by 1.3% in October from a year ago. Changes in China's producer price index tend to precede similar changes in that of the U.S. by about one or two months, Francoise Huang, senior economist at Allianz Trade, said in October. While inflation has surged in the U.S. and Europe, China's consumer price index has remained subdued due to lackluster domestic demand.

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